EUR/USD

The single currency is grinding higher inside a shallow uptrend channel that has held since the start of July. Rate differentials remain the dominant driver: every downside surprise in US data pulls the pair toward 1.1570, while firm prints send it straight back to the 1.1520 pivot.

Short-term technicals still skew bearish — the 12-period moving average cluster sits above spot and momentum oscillators are flat — which is why our signal reads Sell on the intraday horizon even though the one-month and three-month paths are mildly positive. Traders watching the pair should treat 1.1495 as invalidation for the constructive medium-term view.