ECB Survey Shows Euro Area Inflation Outlook Steady

ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: July 2026 Results

The European Central Bank's Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) for July 2026 was conducted with fieldwork running from 2 to 27 July 2026. The survey's headline statistics are calculated using a 2% winsorised mean. The next release of the survey is scheduled for 18 September 2026.

Inflation Expectations

Median inflation expectations five years ahead held at 2.4% in July, matching the level recorded in June. In June, consumers had put median inflation expectations for the next 12 months at 3% and for three years ahead at 2.8%. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months was unchanged in July compared with June, though it remained higher than pre-war levels. In June, that uncertainty measure had decreased for a second consecutive month.

Lower-income respondents reported higher inflation perceptions and expectations than higher-income quintiles in both July and June. Younger respondents aged 18-34 reported lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents in both survey rounds.

Labour Market and Growth Expectations

Euro area consumers expected the unemployment rate to reach 11.2% in 12 months' time in July, unchanged from June. Perceived current unemployment stood at 10.6% in July, down slightly from 10.7% in June. Expected economic growth over the next 12 months was -1.2% in July, an improvement from -1.4% in June. Expected nominal income growth over the next 12 months was 1.0% in July, down from 1.1% in June.

Expectations varied by income group: lower-income households expected a 13.5% unemployment rate in July, versus 9.4% for higher-income households. In June, the equivalent figures were 13.8% for lower-income households and 9.7% for higher-income households.

Housing, Mortgages and Spending

Euro area consumers expected home prices to rise 3.4% over the next 12 months in July, unchanged from June. By income group, the lowest quintile expected home price growth of 4.0% in July, compared with 3.1% for the highest quintile. In June, the lowest income quintile had expected home price growth of 3.7%.

Expected mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead stood at 4.9% for euro area consumers overall in July, down from 5% in June. Lower-income households expected a mortgage rate of 5.7% in July, compared with 5.8% in June, while higher-income households expected 4.4% in both months.

Perceived nominal spending growth over the past 12 months was 5.1% in July, matching June's reading. Expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months was 3.6% in both July and June. In June, the lowest three income quintiles expected slightly higher spending growth than the highest two quintiles.

Credit Conditions

The net percentage of households expecting tighter credit conditions over the next 12 months declined in July, having also declined in June. Households reported that credit access over the past 12 months had tightened compared with June, while the net percentage reporting tightened credit access over the past 12 months had declined in the June survey.

Survey Methodology

The July survey applied a 2% winsorised mean to its headline statistics. Fieldwork for the June survey ran from 4 to 29 June 2026, while fieldwork for the July survey ran from 2 to 27 July 2026. The next release of the Consumer Expectations Survey is scheduled for 18 September 2026.