S&P 500

The index is consolidating a few points below its all-time high after a strong six-week run led by large-cap technology. Breadth is the caveat: the equal-weighted version of the index is roughly flat over the same window, so the advance is narrower than the headline number suggests.

Our model keeps the medium-term path positive because earnings revisions are still trending up and the volatility term structure is in comfortable contango. The neutral short-term verdict simply reflects that price is stretched relative to its 20-day average with no fresh catalyst until the next inflation print.