XBR/USD

Brent has been pinned between $85 and $88.50 for a month while the market waits for clarity on supply quotas. Time spreads have flattened noticeably, which historically precedes a period of range expansion rather than a directional trend continuing.

Our short and medium-term paths are negative because inventory builds have run ahead of the five-year average for four straight weeks and refinery margins are compressing. The twelve-month figure turns marginally positive on the assumption that demand normalises and the current surplus is absorbed.